{"id":1893,"date":"2026-07-22T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T10:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/22\/a-super-el-nino-appears-to-be-emerging-whats-the-big-deal\/"},"modified":"2026-07-22T10:30:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T10:30:00","slug":"a-super-el-nino-appears-to-be-emerging-whats-the-big-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/2026\/07\/22\/a-super-el-nino-appears-to-be-emerging-whats-the-big-deal\/","title":{"rendered":"A \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o appears to be emerging. What\u2019s the big deal?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Climate scientists are warning us to buckle up for a bumpy ride. An El Ni\u00f1o has begun. By year\u2019s end, this periodic climate event might become the strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record.<\/p>\n<p>An El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a recurring two- to seven-year ocean-climate pattern. On June 11, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed Earth has officially entered the El Ni\u00f1o phase of this cycle.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o events emerge in the Eastern Pacific. Eventually, the changes in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-climate\">climate<\/a> they spawn will affect <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-weather\">weather<\/a> globally. And the stronger an El Ni\u00f1o, the more costly it can be to human health, farming, buildings and our wallets.<\/p>\n<p>Forecasters currently predict a 63 percent chance that, by winter, the new El Ni\u00f1o will prove very strong \u2014 as in a \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Here are four things to know as this climate pattern takes hold.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What\u2019s an El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<p>An ENSO\u2019s several-years-long cycle has three phases.<\/p>\n<p>The first, known as El Ni\u00f1o, involves months of warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Back in the 1600s, fishers in Peru noticed this warming tended to show up around Christmas. So they dubbed it \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o,\u201d which is Spanish for \u201clittle boy.\u201d It\u2019s also the name given to \u201cthe Christ child.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"wp-block-sciencenews-inline-related-post alignleft\">\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-el-nino-and-la-nina-enso\">Scientists Say: El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/aside>\n<p>A second phase \u2014 La Ni\u00f1a (or little girl) \u2014 swings to cooler than normal temps in those eastern Pacific waters near the equator.<\/p>\n<p>The last is a neutral, in-between phase. It brings average temperatures back to the Pacific\u2019s equatorial sea surface.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cSouthern Oscillation\u201d part of ENSO\u2019s name refers to another seesawing pattern. Here the swings are between areas of high and low atmospheric pressure over the eastern versus western Pacific Ocean. That up-and-down pressure pattern triggers global-scale changes in winds, air temps and precipitation.<\/p>\n<p>Scientists track ENSO air-pressure changes at two main stations. One is in the West Pacific at Darwin, Australia. The other is in the East Pacific at Tahiti (part of French Polynesia).<\/p>\n<p>During neutral periods and La Ni\u00f1a phases, the high-pressure zone is in the east. That sends prevailing winds westward across the Pacific around the equator. These winds push the warming surface waters of the Pacific to the west. This keeps them away from the coast of the Americas.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"wp-block-sciencenews-inline-related-post alignleft\">\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/odd-ways-weather-can-unfold-warming-world\">The odd ways that weather can unfold in a warming world<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/aside>\n<p>In so doing, it allows cold, nutrient-rich water to well up from the deep ocean. That keeps the eastern equatorial Pacific waters cold.<\/p>\n<p>But every few years, conditions flip. Now high pressure prevails over the western Pacific, and lower pressure over the eastern Pacific.<\/p>\n<p>This weakens or even reverses the direction of the prevailing winds. It also allows warm surface waters to stay in place. This suppresses the upwelling of cold water. Now sea-surface temps warm rapidly in the eastern Pacific. This also serves as a telltale sign an El Ni\u00f1o is back.<\/p>\n<p>No two El Ni\u00f1o events are exactly alike, says Tom Di Liberto. He\u2019s a climate scientist and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-meteorology\">meteorologist<\/a> now working for the nonprofit news group Climate Central. It\u2019s based in Washington, D.C.<\/p>\n<p>But each El Ni\u00f1o transfers huge amounts of heat from tropical Pacific waters into the air. That bonus heat can temporarily \u2014 and dramatically \u2014 boost air temperatures around the globe.<\/p>\n<p>.cheat-sheet-cta {<br \/>\n  border: 1px solid #ffffff;<br \/>\n  margin-top: 20px;<br \/>\n  background-image: url(&#8220;https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2022\/12\/cta-module@2x-2048&#215;239-1.png&#8221;);<br \/>\n  padding: 10px;<br \/>\n  clear: both;<br \/>\n}<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-group cheat-sheet-cta is-layout-flow wp-block-group-is-layout-flow\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\">Do you have a science question? We can help!<\/h2>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forms.gle\/YbhPosFTMqjbSNnV7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Submit your question here<\/a>, and we might answer it an upcoming issue of&nbsp;<em>Science News Explores<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What makes for a \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<p>An El Ni\u00f1o officially starts when sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean steadily remain at least 0.5 degree Celsius (0.9 degree Fahrenheit) above average for several months. The warmer the waters, the stronger an El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s likely global impacts.<\/p>\n<p>Waters warmer than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) above average signal the emergence of a very strong \u2014 or \u201csuper\u201d \u2014 El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignleft size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"1501\" src=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/1030_super_el_nino_water-pond.jpg\" alt=\"a photo of a farmer hunched over a dried and cracking field with wilted plants. He&apos;s pulling out the plants and putting them in a nearby plastic bag.\" class=\"wp-image-238607\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><span class=\"caption wp-caption-238607\">This Philippine farmer was trying to salvage any surviving water-pond plants during the super El Ni\u00f1o in April 1998. He hoped to feed local people and livestock. Seven Philippine corn and rice growing provinces were declared a state of calamity after their crops were totally destroyed by this El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s long, severe drought.<\/span><span class=\"credit wp-credit-238607\">Romeo Gacad\/AFP\/Getty Images Plus<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Since April, temps over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have remained well above average. Dozens of forecasters around the world concluded an El Ni\u00f1o was on its way. By June, as the ocean warmed even more, their forecasts began to warn that this could prove a really powerful event.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, climate change has made detecting an El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s onset and strength more difficult. Why? Global temperatures have been warming steadily over the last decade, which can mask an emerging El Ni\u00f1o. So in May, NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center adopted a new tool for its El Ni\u00f1o forecasts. This now adjusts for that climate change\u2013related warming.<\/p>\n<p>Using this new tool, NOAA predicts that this winter, sea-surface temps in the eastern tropical Pacific are 63 percent likely to be <em>more than 2 degrees Celsius higher<\/em> than average. That\u2019s what suggests a super El Ni\u00f1o is developing.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, computer models are now forecasting \u201cshockingly high\u201d global temperatures for November and December, Di Liberto says.<\/p>\n<p>Such heat can have deadly consequences. A rise in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/heat-sickness\">heat-related illnesses<\/a> is one. Another is upticks in diseases (such as cholera, typhoid and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/malaria-parasites-seduce-mosquitoes\">malaria<\/a>) carried by mosquitoes and other pests that like it hot.<\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1os also alter the track of the Pacific <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-jet-stream\">jet stream<\/a>. The result: Some areas will become drier than normal. Others will get wetter.<\/p>\n<p>For the United States, one of the most significant impacts will likely be more numerous and intense Pacific <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-cyclone\">cyclones<\/a>. At the same time, changing wind patterns can make it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to form.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, the life of any one El Ni\u00f1o is relatively short: Events typically form in the summer, strengthen into the winter, then die out the next spring.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1030\" height=\"632\" src=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/1030_super_el_nino_road.jpg\" alt=\"a photo of a people standing in the rain in front of a completely washed out section of road in Bolivia\" class=\"wp-image-238606\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><span class=\"caption wp-caption-238606\">People in Locotal, Bolivia, check out a major road after torrential rains washed out a large section of it on January 9, 1998. Meteorologists attributed the flooding rains and mudslides here to a powerful El Ni\u00f1o, which had been triggering extreme weather events around the globe.<\/span><span class=\"credit wp-credit-238606\">STR\/AFP\/Getty Images Plus<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How will this year compare to past major El Ni\u00f1os?<\/h2>\n<p>The most recent strong El Ni\u00f1os happened in 2015\u201316, 1997\u201398 and 1982\u201383.<\/p>\n<p>The 1997\u201398 event was the strongest on record. It temporarily raised average global temps <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/global-warming-limit-degrees-ipcc-climate-change\">by 1.5 degrees Celsius<\/a> (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) and triggered devastating weather events.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"wp-block-sciencenews-inline-related-post alignleft\">\n<h4><a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/explainer-hurricanes-cyclones-and-typhoons\">Explainer: Hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons<\/a><\/h4>\n<\/aside>\n<p>These included torrential rains and floods in Peru and East Africa. Those, in turn, triggered an outbreak of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/rift-valley-fever\/about\/index.html\" rel=\"noopener\">Rift Valley Fever<\/a> in Africa. Droughts in Southeast Asia kicked off deadly wildfires. California saw powerful storms that brought major <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/warming-cities-may-see-more-rain-and-frequent-flooding\">flooding<\/a> and landslides. Soaring ocean temperatures led to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/current-coral-bleaching-event-longest-known\">bleaching<\/a> of about one-sixth of the world\u2019s coral reefs.<\/p>\n<p>Such strong El Ni\u00f1os are costly, too. The 1982\u201383 one cost the world an estimated $4.1 billion. The 1997\u201398 event was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.adf2983\" rel=\"noopener\">estimated to cost about $5.7 <em>trillion<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>How bad this year\u2019s event will be is still unclear. But it\u2019s occurring on top of strong global warming from human activities. And even if this year\u2019s turns out to be only moderately strong, Di Liberto says, its impacts could still be very big. \u201cIt would not take a very strong El Ni\u00f1o to see records broken this year.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Here a BBC meteorologist offers a snapshot of why weather forecasters are worried about the developing El Ni\u00f1o and how its impacts could play out across the globe.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is there a way to downgrade this El Ni\u00f1o?<\/h2>\n<p>People might be able to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/sciadv.adx3012\" rel=\"noopener\">weaken future El Ni\u00f1os by injecting small smoke-size particles into the atmosphere<\/a>. That\u2019s the finding of an analysis in the July 10 <em>Science Advances<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>To work, these <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/scientists-say-aerosol\">aerosols<\/a> would have to be targeted over a particular patch of the Pacific Ocean. This should increase and brighten clouds there, a new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/explainer-what-computer-model\">computer model<\/a> finds. And that would reflect more of the sun\u2019s warming light back into space, cooling the climate.<\/p>\n<p>The idea for this was sparked by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\/article\/climate-change-drove-australian-wildfires-to-extremes\">2019\u201320 Australian wildfires<\/a>, says Jessica Wan. She\u2019s a climate scientist at the University of Chicago in Illinois. Those fires spewed huge billows of particles into the air. Plumes of them wafted over the southeastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. This brightened clouds there \u2014 and helped trigger a multiyear La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n<p>This natural \u201cexperiment\u201d hinted at how altering clouds in the proper region can change large climate patterns, says Wan. Her team\u2019s computer model has now calculated what would happen if people injected a huge quantity of aerosols into the atmosphere (as the wildfires had). This should weaken an El Ni\u00f1o. But how much weaker it got would depend on when the injection took place, the model finds. The strategy seemed to work best when done early in an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>This idea \u201cis really interesting and very new,\u201d says Daniele Visioni. He\u2019s a climate scientist at Cornell University in Ithaca, N.Y. who did not take part in this new study. To him, \u201cthe fact that it looks like this could work is a really good indication that it is something worth thinking about.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But it\u2019s not a strategy that could work for this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o. There are too many big questions to answer first, Wan says. For one thing, the technology to inject particles is years from being ready. Plus, there needs to be more study about the possible negative consequences of injecting aerosol particles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"bkbc-source\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.snexplores.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Science News Explores<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Climate scientists are warning us to buckle up for a bumpy ride. An El Ni\u00f1o has begun. By year\u2019s end, this periodic climate event might [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":1894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[321],"class_list":["post-1893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-science-news-explores"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1893\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bkbc.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}